Methodology: Uses the daily closing price (UTC) on the halving date as the baseline, and calculates the percentage return on day N after the halving. Samples are taken from historical halving cycles.
| Statistic |
Return |
| Minimum | -- |
| Median | -- |
| Maximum | -- |
| Sample Size | -- |
Note: The sample size is small (currently only 4 halving events), so this chart is best used as a historical reference rather than a prediction tool.
Methodology: Using UTC daily closing prices as entry points, we measure how many days it takes for the price to first return to
or exceed the entry price. Entries that never recover are tracked separately.
Note: This analysis does not account for position sizing, fees, or opportunity costs. It reflects historical price behavior only.P75 means that 75% of buy points recovered within the displayed number of days, while the remaining 25% took longer to break even.
P90 follows the same logic.
Historical 1-Year Performance After Halvings
Method: (UTC) close on halving date vs. close exactly one year later, USD-denominated percentage change, for reference only.
| Halving |
Date |
Close on date |
Close 1Y later |
1Y change |
| 1st |
28-11-2012 |
$12.20 |
$1,031.95 |
+8,358.61% |
| 2nd |
09-07-2016 |
$650.96 |
$2,518.44 |
+286.88% |
| 3rd |
11-05-2020 |
$8,601.80 |
$56,704.57 |
+559.22% |
| 4th |
20-04-2024 |
$65,012.58 |
$85,174.30 |
+31.01% |
Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Data uses public daily closes and may vary across sources/timezone conventions.
FAQ
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
The next Bitcoin halving is estimated around (UTC): 2028-04-11 at block height 1,050,000. It is about 805 days away. The block subsidy will drop to 1.5625 BTC. Because hashrate and difficulty change over time, the date can shift by a few days—this is normal.
Why does the Bitcoin halving happen about every 4 years?
Halving is a fixed rule in the Bitcoin protocol: every 210,000 blocks, the block subsidy paid to miners is cut in half. Since Bitcoin targets an average of one block every 10 minutes, 210,000 blocks takes roughly four years, so it’s often described as “once every four years.” The goal is to control issuance and gradually reduce new supply over time.
Will Bitcoin really have a maximum supply of 21 million?
Under the current Bitcoin consensus rules, yes. Because the subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks, it approaches zero over time, and the total issued supply converges to about 21,000,000 BTC. Unless the network adopts a major protocol change by broad consensus, this cap remains unchanged.
If everyone knows halving matters, why doesn’t price always spike on the halving day?
Because halving primarily changes long-term supply dynamics, not instant circulation. On the halving day, new issuance is reduced, but the circulating supply doesn’t suddenly jump. Historically, Bitcoin’s price impact has often played out over months (or even a year) after a halving rather than immediately.
Will miners shut off en masse and break the network after a halving?
Some higher-cost miners may exit in the short term, which is a normal adjustment. Bitcoin has a difficulty adjustment mechanism: if hashrate drops, difficulty can fall, and block times move back toward the ~10-minute target. Historically, the network has successfully adjusted after every halving.
With a lower subsidy after halving, how do miners earn revenue?
Miner revenue comes from two parts: the block subsidy and transaction fees. Over multiple halvings, the subsidy becomes a smaller portion and fees become relatively more important—this is part of Bitcoin’s long-term design.
Why does Bitcoin’s supply inflation keep decreasing?
Because new issuance keeps shrinking while total mined supply keeps growing. In simple terms: the numerator (new coins) gets smaller and the denominator (total supply) gets larger, so the annualized supply inflation tends to decrease over time and approach zero. Current annualized inflation is about 0.82%.
When the subsidy approaches zero, can Bitcoin still function securely?
Yes. The long-term expectation is that as the subsidy approaches zero, miners will be incentivized primarily through transaction fees. As long as the network is used and block space retains value, fees can provide ongoing incentives.
What does halving mean for regular BTC holders?
Halving doesn’t directly change how many BTC you hold, but it can change long-term supply-demand dynamics. For holders, the key points are: (1) slower new supply, (2) stronger long-term scarcity narrative, and (3) evolving market expectations around Bitcoin’s value proposition.
Why is the halving date different from other websites?
Some websites show a later halving date because they assume a different average block time (e.g., ~10.3–10.4 minutes per block). Bitcoin targets ~10 minutes, but the real average varies with hashrate and mining difficulty. In periods of rising hashrate, blocks can arrive faster than 10 minutes; in declining periods, slower. This site estimates the halving countdown using the current tip height and a real-time block interval assumption, aiming for a best-effort forecast under current conditions.
